Forecasting the weather is hard-work but trying to decipher the direction and level of interest rates is probably even harder. In the over 10-years I have spent looking at Nigerian debt markets, I’ve learned to become more humble and less exact in writing about the future. That said, this does not mean the business of forecasting is about to go bust. Forecasts matter as they shape opinions about how the future will pan out and to a large extent influence positioning by investors across various markets.
So beginning this year, we would like to start a survey ( 6 questions) to help understand how the debt market participants view the outlook for Naira interest rates over the next 3-months. The objective is obtain is a snapshot of how financial market participants think Naira interest rates might evolve over the next one quarter. We will look to repeat the survey at the end of March, June and September to make it more informative about the evolution of rates over 2022.
Responses will be confidential but we will share the survey results over the next one week.
Please take 1 minute to complete the survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/DX8K9RQ
If you know anyone who is interested in Nigerian debt market please forward this survey to them to help deepen the pool of responses. As the statisticians say the larger the sample set the more it approximates to the true population mean.
The Eco215 Team
Nigeria Fixed Income Survey – Q1 2022