Inflation marches ahead, record VAT collections and oil production slumps, bearish trends across fixed income The week that was (June 14-17) Inflation continues to rise on galloping diesel and food prices: The National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation jumped in May to 17.71% (April: 16.82%) just below the lower end of my call […]

Bear curve flattening underway, public debt rises in Q1 2022 and corporate tax collections accelerate to 7-year highs The week that was (June 6-10) Mixed trends along the curve as short term rates rise while long dated bonds recline: The divergent trends along the Naira yield curve continued last week:  short-dated Nigerian T-bill (NTB) yields […]

Apologies for the delay, I was on the road over the weekend so did not get some time to scribble my thoughts on the week. Improved liquidity from FAAC inflows drives moderation in funding rates, bond markets discount MPR hike The week that was (May 30-June 2) Divergent trends across the Naira yield curve: Interest […]

Tight liquidity and MPR tightening drives bearish trends in Naira fixed income      The week that was (May 23-27) Q1 2022 GDP: Non-oil GDP growth rebounds strongly: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put out Q1 2022 GDP data which showed that Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.11% y/y, slower than the 3.98% clocked in Q4 […]

The week that was (May 16-20) Tight system liquidity pressures short-term interest rates, net buying on the long-end: Money markets were tight during the week on account of large outflows to fund the monthly bond auction settlements. As a result, interbank rates closed the week at the ceiling of 12.25-12.5%. (Note: In contrast to prior […]

In their seminal book, “Why nations fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty” published in 2012, the economists, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson brilliantly argued that most theories in economics fail to provide a convincing explanation of the drivers of the lived reality because they erroneously assume that basic political problems have been solved. […]

Bulls regain control despite tight liquidity conditions, CBN Governor withdraws from presidential race and lower oil production in April.    The week that was (May 9-13) Despite tight liquidity trends, yields declined broadly along the Naira curve: Despite fairly tight liquidity conditions which drove a pick-up in funding costs (with overnight borrowing rates up 400bps […]

Improved liquidity conditions from FAAC inflows drives money market rates lower, Naira woes continue in the real world. The week that was (May 4-6) Money market rates buckle under the weight of FAAC inflows, modest declines across the curve: Money markets were liquid during the week due to inflows from FAAC credits (NGN449billion) and OMO […]

Tight liquidity conditions pressures short-dated rates, long end comes off on renewed buying, oil production headaches The week that was (April 26-29) Money market rates remain subdued but bearish sentiments dominate NT-bill trading: Money market were under a liquidity strain over last week, brought about by large outflows required to settle the FGN bond/NTB auctions […]

A weak auction, DMO contains upside via non-competitive bids At its monthly bond auction yesterday, the Debt Management Office (DMO) sold NGN349billion worth of bonds relative to an initial target of NGN225billion. Demand was weak with a bid-cover ratio at a four-month low of 1.82x (March: 3.99x), which provides some hint that much of the […]