The Week That Was (September 12-16) Headline inflation clears 20%, but slowdown in m/m suggests peak in sight: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published CPI data for August which showed that prices facing the average Nigerian climbed 20.52% on a y/y basis with renewed pressures in Food (+23.1% y/y) – a multi-decade high. Adjusted […]

The Week that was (September 6-10) 1-yr NTB paper hits 10%, the beginning of the end? In a surprise move, the DMO raised the stop-rate on the 1-year NTB tenor by 150bps to 10% (effective yield: 11.1%). Though markets have been tight and the DMO had relied on a helping hand from the CBN it […]

I have the privilege of bringing a guest post this week from one of our readers and a trader in one of Nigeria’s leading fixed income dealing firms. If you’d like to write something featured here you can drop us a message via Repurchase agreement, or ‘repos’ are a silent but important part of […]

Inflation hits 17-year high, Economy muddles along, CBN takes steps towards orthodoxy, DMO surrenders, Naira on the ropes The Week that Was (August 15-26) Nigeria’s economy expands over Q2 2022, oil now only 6% of the economy: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put out economic data for the second quarter which showed that Nigeria’s […]

Trade balance improves, capital flows remain weak, another smooth NT-bill auction and bond market bearish remain in charge The Week that Was (August 8-12) Merchandise trade account moves into green in H1 2022: Updated CBN trade data through June 2022 showed that Nigeria’s external goods account moved into positive territory (USD5.6billion) vs a deficit of […]

The Week that Was (August 1-5) Oil production slips, CBN Ways & Means rises to NGN20trillion, Rates maintain upward drift and Naira pares losses. Oil production reverses recent gains in July, changing output mix highlights fiscal revenue and FX related headaches:  In a reverse from the pick-up recorded over June, data from the Nigerian Upstream […]

The Week that Was (July 25-29) Nigeria exhausts ECA balances, another ‘smooth’ NTB auction, Nigerian Eurobonds rally The end of the road for the Excess Crude Account: Nigeria’s finance minister Zainab Ahmed reported that the Excess Crude Account (ECA) balance had dropped from USD35million in January 2022 to USD337k at the end of June 2022 […]

Liquidity pressures force the DMO’s hand, CBN delivers another rate hike, subsidy headaches set the stage for a record fiscal deficit and Eurobond blues. The Week that Was (July 18-22) DMO wilts under pressure of tight banking system liquidity at the July bond auction:  In the lead up to the July 2022 bond auction, money […]

The Weeks that were (June 27 to July 15, 2022) NTB yield curve inversion, CBN starts to tighten, inflation tracks higher, Naira devalued at the official windows and external accounts turn positive. Fixed income markets turn bearish as CBN tightens the screw on liquidity:  After a largely lukewarm attitude towards financial system liquidity over the […]

DMO switches to miserly mode at the auction, strain on banking liquidity drives front-end pressures, CBN remained dovish over May from money supply data and weak sentiment across Nigerian Eurobonds The Week that was (June 20-24) DMO ‘undersells’ at the monthly bond auction: At the monthly bond auction where the DMO had NGN225billion on offer, […]